Metaplanet Braces for $700M Loss, but Its 2026 Outlook Remains Strong
Tokyo-listed Bitcoin treasury firm Metaplanet has sharply upgraded its operating outlook for 2025 and issued ambitious revenue guidance for 2026, even as it prepares to report a deep annual loss driven by a massive non-cash impairment on its expanding Bitcoin holdings.
In a notice published Monday, the company said it now expects fiscal-year 2025 revenue to reach 8.905 billion Japanese yen (roughly $58 million) and operating income to come in at about $40 million. Both figures mark meaningful upgrades from previous expectations as the firm’s Bitcoin income-generation business continues to outperform internal projections.
However, the boosted operational performance will be overshadowed by a substantial accounting hit. Metaplanet anticipates an ordinary loss of $632 million and a net loss of $491 million for 2025, almost entirely due to an estimated $680–$700 million Bitcoin impairment loss. The write-down reflects year-end market prices for Bitcoin—an approach required under mark-to-market accounting rules—and does not involve any cash outflow.
The full-year results are scheduled for release on Feb. 16, and the impairment ensures the company will report a large annual deficit despite strengthening fundamentals.
Bitcoin Income Generation Beats Expectations
According to the filing, revenue from Metaplanet’s Bitcoin income-generation business surged more than expected in the fourth quarter.
Management now projects that segment to deliver $55 million in revenue for 2025, compared to the $40 million previously announced. Executives attributed the boost to stronger yield performance, increased deployment of corporate Bitcoin, and the firm’s expanded treasury strategy.
The company emphasized that the impairment charge is purely an “accounting adjustment reflecting period-end price fluctuations†and has no direct impact on cash flows, liquidity, or ongoing operations.
BTC Holdings Expand 19-Fold in 2025
While the write-down reflects lower year-end Bitcoin prices, Metaplanet’s treasury continued to grow aggressively throughout 2025. The company expanded its holdings from 1,762 BTC at the end of 2024 to 35,102 BTC by year-end 2025, marking one of the largest annual accumulations by any publicly traded firm.
Metaplanet’s BTC holdings (Source: Bitcoin Treasuries)
That growth translated into a staggering 568% increase in Bitcoin yield per diluted share, a metric Metaplanet uses to track how much Bitcoin backs each share on a diluted basis. The company said the figure highlights its strategy of compounding BTC holdings and enhancing long-term per-share Bitcoin exposure for investors.
The surge in BTC accumulation puts Metaplanet among the top corporate Bitcoin holders in Asia, positioning it as a regional counterpart to U.S.-based firms like Strategy that have adopted aggressive Bitcoin-as-treasury-reserve strategies.
2026 Forecast Shows Significant Scale-Up
Looking ahead, Metaplanet offered a bullish projection for 2026, forecasting $103 million in revenue and $73 million in operating income.
Nearly all of that revenue is expected to come from the company’s Bitcoin income-generation business, which includes lending, yield strategies, and related financial operations built around its expanding BTC reserves.
Selling, general and administrative expenses for 2026 are expected to total about $29 million, in line with the firm’s plans to scale its Bitcoin financial services infrastructure.
However, Metaplanet did not provide ordinary income or net income forecasts for 2026, citing the inherent difficulty of predicting future Bitcoin prices and volatility. The company said this makes it impractical to model future impairment or revaluation effects that heavily influence those bottom-line numbers under current accounting standards.
