Bitcoin Undervalued as JPMorgan and Citi Eye New Record Highs Above $150K

Bitcoin (BTC) is drawing renewed attention from Wall Street, with two of the largest U.S. banks — JPMorgan and Citi — releasing fresh forecasts that highlight both the opportunities and risks ahead for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

JPMorgan Sees Bitcoin Climbing Toward $165,000

Analysts at JPMorgan, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, said Bitcoin could climb to around $165,000 on a volatility-adjusted basis relative to gold. The bank framed this projection within the so-called “debasement trade” — a move by investors into hard assets such as BTC and gold to hedge against fiat currency devaluation.

According to the bank’s models, BTC is trading about $50,000 below its fair value relative to gold, suggesting significant upside if inflows continue. 

JPMorgan highlighted that retail investors have been the biggest drivers of recent inflows into both BTC ETFs and gold ETFs, particularly since late 2024 and ahead of the U.S. presidential election. Institutional investors have also participated, though more heavily through CME futures rather than ETFs.

The analysts noted that Bitcoin’s volatility ratio to gold has dipped below 2.0, making it appear more attractive compared to the yellow metal. This, combined with rising gold prices, has reinforced JPMorgan’s stance that Bitcoin remains undervalued in the current macroeconomic environment.

Citi Targets $133,000 for Year-End but Eyes $181,000 in 2026

Meanwhile, Citi struck a slightly different tone in its Wednesday report. The bank expects BTC to end 2025 around $133,000, a small trim from its previous $135,000 projection. However, Citi’s analysts see much larger potential over the next 12 months, setting a 2026 target of $181,000, assuming sustained ETF inflows and favorable regulation.

The bank’s scenarios remain wide-ranging: Bitcoin could reach $156,000 if equity markets rally, or drop to $83,000 in the event of a recession. At publication time, Bitcoin traded above $120,000.

BTC price (Source: CoinMarketCap)

Citi emphasized Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative, arguing it is better positioned than other cryptocurrencies to attract inflows. Ether (ETH), projected at $4,500 by year-end 2025 and $5,400 in 2026, may also benefit from staking and decentralized finance (DeFi) yields, though it faces stronger competition.

The Bigger Picture for Bitcoin

Both forecasts underscore Wall Street’s growing recognition of BTC as a mainstream investment asset. The focus on ETF-driven inflows, macroeconomic conditions, and the debasement trade shows how closely Bitcoin’s trajectory is now tied to institutional adoption and global financial sentiment.

While JPMorgan frames Bitcoin as undervalued compared to gold, Citi sees its future path hinging on whether ETF inflows remain steady amid shifting regulatory and macroeconomic risks.

With BTC already above $120,000, the stage is set for a pivotal 2025, where both banks agree that the upside case could push the cryptocurrency to fresh record highs well above $150,000.