Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inches Closer to S&P 500—If Bitcoin Holds the Line

Michael Saylor’s Strategy—trading under the ticker MSTR—may be on the verge of a major milestone: inclusion in the S&P 500. But there’s one catch. It all hinges on Bitcoin holding steady above $95,240 through the end of June.

That’s the key insight from financial analyst Jeff Walton, who shared his thoughts in a video released Tuesday. According to Walton, there’s about a 91% chance Strategy will qualify for inclusion in the prestigious index—as long as Bitcoin doesn’t crash more than 10% over the final stretch of Q2.

The Bitcoin Threshold

At the time of Walton’s video, BTC was trading at $106,044. As of now, it’s slightly up at $108,00 but still dangerously close to the trigger point. If BTC dips below $95,240 by June 30, Strategy’s chances drop dramatically.

BTC price chart (Source: CoinMarketCap)

Why? Because the S&P 500 has a key eligibility requirement: companies must post positive cumulative GAAP earnings over the past four quarters. Strategy has reported net losses in the last three. Its only hope for a qualifying fourth quarter lies in unrealized Bitcoin gains—which, thanks to a new accounting rule (ASU 2023-08), now flow through its income statement.

Probability Math

Walton leans heavily on historical BTC data to back up his case. Since Sept. 17, 2014, there have been 343 six-day periods where Bitcoin dropped more than 10%. That’s out of 3,928 possible six-day windows. In other words, there’s a 91.3% chance Bitcoin won’t fall that far in a given six-day span.

Jeff Walton says MSTR’s hopes of S&P 500 inclusion hinge on Bitcoin staying above $95,280 (Source: Jeff Walton)

Better yet for Strategy, as each day passes, those odds improve. If only one day remains, Bitcoin has historically had a 97.6% chance of staying above the danger zone.

S&P 500 and Crypto: A Budding Romance?

If Strategy makes it, it would be the second crypto-connected company to enter the S&P 500 this year. Coinbase made its debut in May, prompting celebration across the digital asset space.

And it’s not like Strategy is new to the spotlight. Back in December 2024, the company was added to the Nasdaq-100 Index—a recognition of its growing market cap and influence.

But There’s a Risk

Of course, this bullish case isn’t a done deal. Over the weekend, Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000 amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While it’s bounced back for now, the next few days will be critical. Any sharp sell-off could derail Strategy’s earnings, and with it, its shot at joining America’s 500 most elite public companies.

For now, it’s a waiting game—and all eyes are on Bitcoin’s price chart.