Path to $1 Million Bitcoin is Hidden in Gold’s History: Bitwise CIO
Bitcoin could climb to $1 million within the next decade if the global market for store-of-value assets continues expanding at its historical pace, according to Matt Hougan, who says many investors underestimate how quickly capital allocated to safe-haven assets has grown over the past two decades.
In a memo published Tuesday, Hougan argued that the seven-figure Bitcoin target appears less extreme when viewed against the broader growth of assets used to preserve wealth. While the $1 million forecast has often been treated as an aggressive long-term projection, he said the math becomes more realistic when market expansion is included in the equation.
The target has long carried symbolic weight in crypto markets. Similar to the way BTC’s move past $100,000 in late 2024 became a milestone for institutional adoption, a rise to $1 million would signal that Bitcoin’s market capitalization had moved beyond that of Gold, the traditional benchmark for global wealth preservation.
Hougan acknowledged that the scale of that target once made him skeptical.
“This is why $1 million per Bitcoin sounds unreasonable to many, and why I dismissed it for years,” he wrote, adding that the valuation hurdle remains significant even under favorable assumptions.
Gold’s Two-Decade Expansion Shapes the Bitcoin Comparison
Hougan’s analysis focuses on what he defines as the store-of-value market, which in his framework includes only gold and Bitcoin.
He estimates gold currently represents roughly $36 trillion in value, while Bitcoin stands near $1.4 trillion. That leaves BTC accounting for approximately 4% of the current store-of-value market.
The key part of his argument is that this market has not remained static. Gold’s value has expanded sharply since 2004, when the first US gold exchange-traded funds launched and opened the metal to broader institutional access.
Gold price over the years (Source: TradingView)
At that time, gold’s total market value was about $2.5 trillion. According to Hougan, that implies a compound annual growth rate of roughly 13% over the past two decades.
He said investors often overlook that structural growth when assessing Bitcoin’s future ceiling.
Bitcoin Would Need Only a Fraction of a Larger Future Market
If the store-of-value market continues growing at the same annual pace, Hougan projects it could reach approximately $121 trillion over the next 10 years.
Under that scenario, Bitcoin would not need to fully replace gold to justify a $1 million valuation. Instead, it would need to capture around 17% of the expanded market.
That would mean Bitcoin grows from roughly one twenty-fifth of today’s store-of-value market to about one sixth of the future market.
Hougan described those assumptions as relatively conservative, arguing that they do not require Bitcoin to dominate global capital flows, only to continue steadily increasing its share as institutional adoption deepens.
Still, the implied price move remains substantial. Bitcoin would need to rise about 14-fold from current levels, representing gains of roughly 1,300%.
Monetary Policy Could Decide Whether the Thesis Holds
Hougan also noted that macroeconomic conditions will likely determine whether that scenario becomes achievable.
If governments begin reducing reliance on quantitative easing, maintain tighter monetary policy, and keep real interest rates elevated, demand for inflation hedges could weaken. Both Bitcoin and gold have historically benefited when investors fear currency debasement or declining purchasing power.
A reversal in those conditions could limit upside for both assets.
At the same time, Hougan suggested that the opposite outcome may be equally likely.
Growing concern over sovereign debt levels, persistent fiscal deficits, and pressure on fiat systems could push investors further toward scarce assets. In that environment, Bitcoin’s share of the store-of-value market could rise faster than his current baseline estimate.
He said that possibility means even his $1 million projection may prove conservative if macro risks intensify over the next decade.
