Bitcoin Breaks $70,000, But Arthur Hayes Refuses to Buy—Here’s the Catch

Arthur Hayes is maintaining his long-term bullish stance on Bitcoin, but says he is not ready to buy yet, even as the asset reclaimed the $70,000 level and social sentiment improved following comments from Donald Trump suggesting tensions with Iran may be easing.

Speaking on Coin Stories, Hayes said he would stay on the sidelines until the Federal Reserve begins loosening monetary policy, arguing that liquidity — not conflict itself — remains the real catalyst for Bitcoin’s next major move.

“If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes said , explaining that he wants clearer signs that central banks are prepared to inject fresh liquidity into financial markets before adding exposure.

Fed Policy Remains Central to Hayes’ Bitcoin Thesis

Hayes argued that while geopolitical instability often sparks speculation that Bitcoin could benefit as a hedge, the stronger driver historically has been expansionary monetary policy. In his view, prolonged military pressure involving the United States increases the probability that policymakers eventually return to supportive liquidity measures.

He said an extended conflict could force Washington to increase spending, which in turn may pressure the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative stance. According to Hayes, this is the point at which Bitcoin becomes attractive again.

The former BitMEX executive added that he is not convinced the market has already found a durable bottom. Although Bitcoin recovered to above $71,000 in the past 24 hours, it remains sharply below its October peak near $126,000, leaving room for another leg lower if broader risk markets weaken.

BTC price (Source: CoinGecko)

Hayes warned that worsening geopolitical stress could still trigger a broader liquidation event across equities and digital assets, potentially dragging Bitcoin below $60,000 before stronger demand re-emerges.

Long-Term Bullish Target Still Intact

Despite his near-term caution, Hayes has not backed away from his larger market forecast. He reiterated that he still sees Bitcoin reaching $250,000 during 2026, maintaining a target he has defended for months.

He also suggested that the window for buying Bitcoin below six figures may be narrowing.

According to Hayes, once monetary easing begins, capital could rotate quickly back into crypto markets, especially if investors view fiat debasement risks as increasing.

His comments come as other analysts have taken a more constructive short-term view. Several market participants have pointed to renewed strength in U.S. equities and improving liquidity conditions as reasons Bitcoin may continue climbing.

Social Sentiment Improves After Trump Comments

Meanwhile, crypto market data platform Santiment reported that online discussion around Bitcoin turned increasingly positive after Trump signaled that the confrontation involving Iran could be nearing resolution.

Santiment said bullish commentary across X, Reddit, Telegram and other crypto communities increased steadily after a sharp drop in sentiment earlier in the week.

The firm linked the rebound partly to falling oil prices and expectations that geopolitical escalation may not intensify further.

Trump said this week that the war appeared close to completion, although he also warned that any attempt by Iran to disrupt oil supply routes would trigger a stronger U.S. military response.

Bitcoin Shows Resilience Despite Extreme Fear

Merkle Tree Capital chief investment officer Ryan McMillin said Bitcoin’s ability to remain firm through recent geopolitical shocks is helping improve trader confidence.

He also pointed to continued institutional accumulation, including fresh buying by Strategy, as a source of support beneath the market.

McMillin said short sellers may be vulnerable if Bitcoin continues pushing higher, with a potential squeeze toward $80,000 possible before the market reaches a clearer directional decision.

Even so, broader sentiment indicators remain cautious. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stayed deep in extreme fear territory at 15, suggesting many investors remain hesitant despite Bitcoin’s rebound.