Prediction Market Dispute Erupts Over Cardi B’s Super Bowl Appearance
A brief appearance by rapper Cardi B during Bad Bunny’s Super Bowl halftime show has sparked a dispute across major prediction markets.
The controversy centers on a simple but highly traded question: did Cardi B “perform” during the halftime show? The answer, depending on the platform, has turned into a legal complaint and widespread user backlash.
Millions Wagered On Halftime Show Outcomes
Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts based on the outcomes of future events, with prices ranging from $0 to $1 to represent perceived probabilities. These markets often feature straightforward yes-or-no questions, but the results can become contentious when definitions are unclear.
On Kalshi, more than $47.3 million was wagered on the contract titled “Who will perform at the Big Game?” Meanwhile, a similar contract on Polymarket generated more than $10 million in trading volume.
During the halftime show, Cardi B appeared alongside singers Karol G and Young Miko, as well as actors Jessica Alba and Pedro Pascal. She danced during the performance, which also included appearances by Ricky Martin and Lady Gaga, but it was unclear whether she sang or delivered any vocals.
Conflicting Resolutions Across Platforms
The uncertainty over whether her appearance qualified as a “performance” led to different outcomes on the two platforms.
Kalshi cited ambiguity in the contract’s definition and settled the market at the last traded price before activity was paused.
That outcome effectively favored “No” holders, with contracts settling at $0.74 for No and $0.26 for Yes. The platform ultimately returned funds to users.
Polymarket, by contrast, resolved the contract in favor of a “Yes,” indicating that Cardi B did perform. This decision has been disputed by some users, and a final ruling on the contract is expected mid-week.
CFTC Complaint Filed
The disagreement escalated further when a Kalshi trader filed a complaint with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, alleging that the platform violated the Commodity Exchange Act in how it handled the contract. The trader, who held a “Yes” position, is seeking $3,700 in damages.
The complaint was first reported by the Event Horizon newsletter and later published by Front Office Sports. As of Tuesday evening, regulators had not publicly commented on the matter.
A Record-Setting Season For Prediction Markets
The dispute comes amid a surge in activity tied to the NFL season, which has become one of the biggest drivers of prediction-market trading.
Kalshi reported more than $1 billion in total daily trading volume on the day of the Super Bowl, marking a record for the platform and representing an increase of more than 2,700% compared with the previous year’s game.
Across the entire season, trading on Super Bowl winner futures reached $828.6 million, up more than 2,000% year over year.
The spike in activity also caused operational strain. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara said on social media that the traffic surge was far beyond the company’s most optimistic projections.
She added that the platform reimbursed processing fees and issued credits to users who experienced deposit delays during the event.
