Prediction Market Volumes Hit Daily Record of $701M Even as Regulators Crack Down
Prediction market volumes are soaring at the start of 2026.
Despite mounting regulatory pressure across multiple US states, and a fresh wave of attention after a controversial high-payout geopolitical bet, the sector notched a record $701.7 million in daily trading volume on Monday, according to Dune Analytics data compiled by Gate Research.
Prediction market volumes since September 2024 (Source: Dune Analytics)
The new milestone topped the previous all-time high of $666.6 million, set just 24 hours earlier, marking back-to-back records for prediction market volumes as traders flock to the rapidly expanding market category.
Kalshi, one of the most prominent prediction market operators in the US, accounted for two-thirds of Monday’s total, recording $465.9 million in trading volume. Competitors Polymarket and Opinion combined for another $100 million in activity.
Trading Surges as Prediction Markets Become a Mainstream Crypto Use Case
Prediction markets — platforms where users wager on the outcome of real-world events — have quietly become one of the hottest applications in crypto. Daily volumes, user registrations, and open interest across political, economic, and cultural markets have surged as traders seek novel ways to speculate on information.
Major players in crypto are now moving quickly to capitalize on the trend. Coinbase and Gemini have either launched or are preparing to integrate prediction market functionality, while MetaMask and other self-custody wallets are building similar features directly into their applications. The integrations are expected to make prediction markets accessible to tens of millions of existing crypto users with minimal friction.
This wave of institutional and consumer interest has pushed market leaders Polymarket and Kalshi to multi-billion-dollar valuations, drawing both Silicon Valley capital and fresh attention from Wall Street trading firms seeking new sources of liquidity and retail flow.
Regulatory Heat Intensifies After Controversial Venezuela Bet
However, rapid growth has also drawn the attention — and concern — of US regulators.
Earlier this month, prediction markets came under renewed scrutiny after an anonymous Polymarket user placed a roughly $30,000 bet that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office just hours before he was captured. The trade paid out more than $400,000, immediately raising alarms about potential insider information and prompting calls for tighter oversight.
The incident follows months of heightened political attention on the sector as lawmakers debate whether prediction markets represent financial innovation, unregulated gambling, or a hybrid that requires new forms of supervision.
Lawmakers Move to Restrict Political, Sports, and Financial Markets
New York is now preparing to review legislation that would ban specific categories of markets, including contracts tied to election outcomes, sports events, and stock-market performance.
Similar efforts have surfaced in Connecticut, Nevada, and New Jersey, each targeting prediction market operators attempting to expand within state borders.
Some of the actions have already sparked legal retaliation. Kalshi, which has faced repeated challenges to its political and sports-related markets, filed suit against Tennessee regulators after being ordered to halt the sale of sports event contracts.
On Monday, a federal judge granted a temporary injunction, preventing the state from taking action while the case proceeds.
The patchwork of state-level responses has made the US regulatory landscape increasingly unpredictable for prediction market businesses — even as user demand surges.
Global Pushback Grows as Ukraine Blocks Polymarket
Regulatory pressure isn’t limited to the US.
Reports this week revealed that Ukraine blocked access to Polymarket in December, classifying the platform’s services as unlicensed gambling. The move mirrors actions taken in several other jurisdictions over the past two years, particularly in countries where gambling legislation is more restrictive.
Despite the hurdles, prediction markets continue to demonstrate some of the strongest growth in the broader crypto ecosystem. With Monday’s record-setting $701.7 million trading day — and integrations from major exchanges underway — the sector is showing little sign of slowing.
Whether regulators ultimately view prediction markets as a tool for information discovery, a new speculative asset class, or simply gambling will determine how the industry evolves from here. For now, traders are voting with their wallets — and volumes are surging to historic highs.
