Monero Price Just Pumped 8% — But Is a Bigger Breakout Coming or a Bull Trap?
Monero (XMR) recorded an impressive 8% surge over the past 24 hours, giving traders a rare burst of bullish momentum after a challenging period dominated by persistent selling pressure.
That move has helped stabilize sentiment around the privacy-focused asset, but the broader daily trend structure shows that bulls still have work to do before a full reversal can take shape.
The recent sharp bounce is notable, especially after several sessions of indecisive price action. However, on the daily timeframe, XMR continues to operate beneath its key trend indicators. This creates an environment where the short-term rally must overcome established resistance zones before it can mature into a sustained trend change.
Short-Term Recovery vs. Broader Downtrend
Despite the 24-hour jump, XMR remains below its declining 9-day and 20-day EMAs. This positioning means the broader trend still leans bearish.
When a crypto’s price recovers sharply but remains underneath falling averages, it often signals a relief rally rather than a definitive shift in market structure.
The EMAs themselves continue to slope downward, showing that sellers have controlled momentum for weeks. For the recent bounce to develop into something more significant, XMR must first reclaim the 9-day EMA — and then hold above it — to show that buyer demand is strong enough to challenge the prevailing trend.
Daily chart for XMR/USDT (Source: TradingView)
The MACD remains deeply in negative territory, which shows that bearish momentum has not yet fully unwound. While the histogram has shown signs of weakening negative pressure recently, it has not flipped into positive territory. This means the short-term bounce in Monero’s price is occurring against the medium-term trend, rather than with it.
The RSI, meanwhile, continues to hover just below the midpoint. This indicates that, while selling pressure has softened, the market is not yet showing the level of bullish strength typically associated with sustainable reversals. The RSI moving decisively back above the 50 line would offer a clearer signal that momentum has shifted.
Resistance Levels Face Immediate Test
With the Monero price now rebounding sharply, it is approaching its first major resistance at $128.10 — a level that has repeatedly acted as a ceiling for recent recovery attempts. A strong daily close above this area would mark the first meaningful victory for bulls since the latest downtrend began.
If momentum continues to build, additional resistance sits at $143.90 and $145.60, both of which form a broader supply zone where Monero previously struggled to maintain higher pricing. These levels would likely serve as logical profit-taking zones if the rally extends.
For now, however, the market remains in “prove it” territory — and the 8% surge is only the opening test.
Support Remains the Safety Net
On the downside, $105.40 remains the most important support level. This area has acted as a stabilizing region during deeper sell-offs and represents the point where buyers have historically become more aggressive.
If the current bounce fails to push through short-term resistance and momentum weakens again, a return toward that support cannot be ruled out.
Monero Order Book Flows Show Improving Liquidity, but Sellers Still Active
Recent order book snapshots show healthier buy-side interest compared to the previous sessions, reflecting the renewed bullish appetite behind the 8% move. However, large sell walls remain above current price levels, especially near the first resistance zone.
That indicates that sellers are still comfortable placing liquidity above market price — a sign that the market has not fully shifted back into bullish control.
Potential Trade Setups
For Long Traders
More conservative traders may look for a confirmed daily close above $128.10 before entering long positions. This would indicate that the 24-hour surge has matured into meaningful structural improvement. Upside targets would be $143.90 and $145.60, where major resistance sits.
Aggressive traders may consider entries on pullbacks during the current momentum burst, but these trades carry higher risk while the price remains below declining EMAs.
For Short Traders
Short setups become more attractive if the current bounce fails at the 9-day EMA or the $128.10 resistance. These areas represent classic rejection zones during downtrends. Downside targets would focus on the $105.40 support region.
Momentum indicators continue to lean bearish overall, so bearish continuation remains on the table unless bulls can reclaim trend-defining levels.
Disclaimer : The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Ecoinimist is not responsible for any losses incurred. Readers should exercise caution before acting on this content.
