Crypto Goes Flat as Washington Awaits Supreme Court Tariff Verdict
The scale and complexity of the U.S. tariff system under President Donald Trump’s second term has reached unprecedented levels, offering both a real-time snapshot and a stark warning for businesses entering 2026.
The latest edition of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule — the essential reference that dictates how much importers must pay the government — has ballooned to more than 4,500 pages. That’s over 100 pages longer than the 2025 edition, and roughly 800 pages thicker than the pre-Trump baseline in 2017.
While the tariffs themselves are costly — the Yale Budget Lab pegs the effective consumer burden at an average rate of 16.8% — it is the sprawling regulatory thicket surrounding them that now presents one of the biggest economic risks of early 2026.
Companies across sectors are fighting to keep up with the constantly shifting rules, and financial markets are already showing signs of anxiety as they wait for clarity.
Even the cryptocurrency market, which rallied at the start of the year, has stalled as traders factor in the possibility of major policy upheavals.
A Tariff System “Mind-Numbingly Difficult” to Navigate
To understand the full weight of the regulatory drag, analysts point to the explosion of tariff measures that businesses must calculate before importing goods.
According to Scott Lincicome, vice president at the Cato Institute’s Trade Policy Studies department, the number of distinct tariff actions affecting major imports has jumped from three in 2017 to at least 17 today.
In a detailed analysis late last year, Lincicome described the U.S. tariff code as “mind-numbingly difficult” to navigate, with an economic cost that is “likely staggering.”
He emphasized that the burden extends far beyond paying the tariffs themselves; the administrative overlay — forms, classifications, temporary exemptions, cross-references, reporting systems — now consumes an enormous amount of corporate bandwidth.
Much of the new complexity resides in Chapter 99 of the tariff book, which now begins on page 3,320 and outlines temporary modifications issued under various trade authorities. The section serves as a kind of real-time repository for the many executive actions Trump issued throughout 2025, with goods ranging from ignition coils to backhoes assigned unique statistical reporting numbers that map to shifting tariff rates.
Supreme Court Ruling Could Trigger Market Shock
Hovering over all of this is the Supreme Court’s impending decision on Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, a case that could define the limits of the president’s tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The ruling could come as soon as Friday.
At stake is roughly $100 billion in government revenue tied to tariffs whose legal standing is now in doubt. The U.S. has collected more than $200 billion in duties since early 2025, and the Tax Foundation estimates that 55% of that revenue stems from emergency tariffs that may not survive judicial scrutiny.
A ruling against Trump could trigger rapid revisions to hundreds of entries in the tariff book — more than 30 revisions were made in 2025 alone — setting off a scramble among businesses and port authorities to recalculate obligations on the fly. The administration has already pledged to replace any overturned tariffs with “legally durable” alternatives.
There is also the possibility of refunds. If the Supreme Court rules that certain duties were illegally collected, billions of dollars may need to be returned to importers.
Costco recently joined a wave of businesses suing the administration to preserve their eligibility for reimbursement. But analysts warn the process will be slow and chaotic.
Broader Market Reaction Includes Crypto Slowdown
Equity markets have been cautious for weeks, and commodities traders have similarly reduced risk exposure ahead of the ruling.
Crypto markets — which staged a dramatic rally the first few days of 2026 on institutional inflows, ETF launches, and growing stablecoin adoption — have also cooled. Bitcoin and Ethereum have traded mostly sideways since mid-December, while altcoin volumes have thinned noticeably.
Analysts say the stagnation reflects a combination of macro uncertainty and investor hesitation.
A Messy 2026 Begins
Whether the Supreme Court sides with the administration or strikes down its emergency tariff authority, the first weeks of 2026 make one thing clear: complexity, uncertainty, and regulatory friction are now central features of the U.S. trade environment.
And until clarity arrives, businesses — from importers to tech manufacturers to crypto firms — are likely to remain in a defensive posture, bracing for a ruling that could reshape both tariff policy and financial markets in one stroke.
