ETF Issuer Bets Bitcoin Performs Better Without Wall Street
Weary U.S.-based bulls who feel like Bitcoin only rallies while they sleep and fades once Wall Street wakes up may not be imagining things after all.
Fresh data from crypto analytics firm Velo.xyz shows a persistent pattern over the past year: Bitcoin tends to post stronger gains when traditional U.S. markets are closed and weaker or negative returns during standard U.S. trading hours.
That trend, visible in hourly performance breakdowns, is now reshaping how some asset managers think about structuring exposure to the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
The phenomenon has also attracted attention from ETF analysts.
Bloomberg intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas said the data mirrors patterns observed through much of 2024, suggesting that positioning in spot ETFs and derivatives markets may be influencing price action during regular market hours.
A Time-Based Bitcoin ETF Emerges
Seeking to turn that statistical quirk into a formal investment strategy, boutique wealth manager Nicholas Financial Corporation has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch a novel Bitcoin exchange-traded fund that avoids the U.S. trading session entirely.
The proposed product, the Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF, would only hold Bitcoin from the U.S. market close to the following morning’s open.
Under the filing, the fund would buy Bitcoin at 4 p.m. Eastern Time, when U.S. equities stop trading, and sell by 9:30 a.m. the next day, just before Wall Street opens. During U.S. daylight hours, the fund would rotate into short-term U.S. Treasury securities to preserve capital and generate yield.
If approved, the strategy would represent a sharp departure from traditional spot Bitcoin ETFs, which maintain continuous exposure to the asset regardless of time of day.
Nicholas Financial also submitted paperwork for a second product, the Nicholas Bitcoin Tail ETF, which would pursue a different risk-managed approach tied to extreme market moves.
ETF Flows and Daytime Pressure
Market analysts say several forces could be contributing to Bitcoin’s underperformance during U.S. hours.
Spot BTC ETFs, which have become a primary on-ramp for institutional inflows since their approval, tend to see the bulk of their trading and rebalancing during U.S. equity market hours. That creates a structural link between BTC and broader risk sentiment.
Derivatives markets may also play a role. Large players often hedge spot exposure through futures during the U.S. session, which can mute upside moves or amplify downside swings when positioning becomes crowded.
Also read: $10 Million Bitcoin Is Possible, Saylor Says — If Corporations Keep Buying
A Bet on the “Quiet Hoursâ€
The AfterDark ETF proposal effectively makes a bet that BTC’s strongest risk-adjusted returns occur during global off-hours, when U.S. macro headlines, Federal Reserve commentary, and equity market turbulence are absent.
By pairing overnight Bitcoin exposure with daytime Treasury holdings, the fund aims to reduce drawdowns while still capturing the asset’s most consistent historical gains. It also introduces a new variable into ETF design: time itself.
Broader Implications for Bitcoin Markets
The filing shows how mature and competitive the Bitcoin ETF ecosystem has become. With dozens of spot and futures-based products already trading, issuers are now searching for increasingly specialized angles to differentiate themselves—whether through leverage, income overlays, or now, time-based exposure.
It also signals growing confidence that market microstructure effects, once considered noise, can be engineered into mainstream investment vehicles.
For traders, the pattern raises practical questions. If U.S. trading hours continue to correlate with weaker performance, short-term strategies may increasingly tilt toward overnight positioning rather than intraday momentum.
For regulators, meanwhile, the AfterDark ETF presents little in the way of novel custody or market integrity risks—but it does test how flexible ETF frameworks can be when issuers start slicing exposure along unconventional dimensions.
As BTC continues to integrate into traditional financial systems, its price behavior is being pulled in new directions by ETF flows, macro trading, and global liquidity cycles.
