Why Cantor Slashed Strategy’s Price Target — and Still Calls It a Buy

Leading financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald has significantly revised its 12-month price target for Strategy, the enterprise software company known for its substantial Bitcoin holdings, while simultaneously reaffirming a long-term bullish stance on the flagship cryptocurrency. 

The move comes amid persistent market speculation regarding Strategy’s financial stability and the broader trajectory of digital assets.

Cantor Fitzgerald analysts have adjusted their 12-month price target for Strategy (MSTR) shares by a substantial 60%, bringing it down to $229 from a previous estimate of $560. Despite this considerable downgrade, the firm has maintained its “buy” rating on Strategy stock, signaling a nuanced perspective on the company’s prospects and its strategic embrace of Bitcoin.

Central to Cantor’s assessment is a direct refutation of widespread fears concerning Strategy’s potential for forced liquidation of its Bitcoin reserves. The analysts firmly stated that such concerns are “not warranted,” despite the considerable attention they have garnered within the financial community. 

Also read: CryptoQuant Says Strategy’s BTC Buying Collapse Signals Deep Bear Cycle Ahead

According to their analysis, Strategy possesses “enough cash” to cover dividend payments for an estimated 21 months. Furthermore, they highlighted the company’s ability to “raise cash through equity facilities should it be needed.” This robust financial position, in Cantor Fitzgerald’s view, renders forced liquidation highly improbable, unless Bitcoin were to experience an extraordinary 90% decline from its current trading levels.

At the time of the report, Strategy’s stock was trading around $186, reflecting a challenging period for the company’s valuation. 

Strategy share price (Source: Google Finance)

The shares have declined by 27% over the past month and are down 35% year-to-date, substantially lagging Cantor’s earlier, more optimistic price target. 

It is worth noting that Cantor Fitzgerald itself holds a significant stake in Strategy, ranking as the ninth-largest shareholder.

Strategy Navigating Regulatory and Index Risks

Beyond the immediate market dynamics and internal financial health, Strategy faces potential external pressures. 

One such concern stems from the MSCI Index, which has reportedly threatened to remove companies whose digital asset holdings exceed 50% of their total assets. 

Also read: Strategy Hit by Index Overhang and Premium Drop, but TD Cowen Analysts Call for $535 Target

Should such a policy be enacted, it could trigger the “forced selling of MSTR” shares by index-tracking funds. Cantor Fitzgerald acknowledged this as a “somewhat warranted” fear, recognizing its potential impact as a “near-term flow headwind” for Strategy’s stock. 

However, the firm’s overall tone suggests that while this presents a tangible risk, it does not fundamentally alter their long-term conviction.

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Trajectory and Gold Comparison

Despite the challenges faced by Strategy and the broader market volatility, Cantor Fitzgerald remains steadfastly bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term price momentum. 

Analysts characterized the recent market pullback in Bitcoin as a “healthy” correction, positioning it within a larger growth narrative. 

The firm reiterated its long-held belief that Bitcoin is on a path to surpass the market capitalization of gold, a significant milestone that would redefine its status in the global financial landscape.

To achieve that monumental feat, Bitcoin’s market capitalization would need to grow exponentially. 

Also read: Strategy’s mNAV Drops Below 1 but Analysts Say the Real Rally Is Coming

Currently, Bitcoin’s market cap represents approximately 6.1% of gold’s. For Bitcoin to eclipse gold, Cantor Fitzgerald calculates that its price would need to reach an astonishing $1,577,860 per coin. 

BTC price (Source: CoinGecko)

That ambitious forecast aligns with predictions from other prominent analysts in the crypto space. 

However, the journey to such a valuation is not without its current disparities. Since the beginning of 2025, gold’s price has recorded a robust increase of 58%, significantly outperforming Bitcoin, which has experienced a 1.5% year-to-date decline. 

The contrast shows the differing market dynamics and risk profiles currently at play for the two assets, even as long-term predictions favor Bitcoin’s growth trajectory.