CryptoQuant Says Strategy’s BTC Buying Collapse Signals Deep Bear Cycle Ahead

Strategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has sharply reduced its pace of accumulation this year, signaling what analysts at CryptoQuant believe is preparation for an extended crypto bear market. 

In a report released Wednesday, the analytics firm noted a dramatic slowdown in monthly purchases compared to the company’s peak buying activity in late 2024.

According to CryptoQuant, Strategy’s purchasing volume plunged from 134,000 BTC per month at its 2024 peak to just 9,100 BTC in November 2025, with only 135 BTC acquired so far this month. “A 24-month buffer makes one thing clear: they’re bracing for the bear market,” the firm wrote.

Strategy’s monthly BTC purchases show a sharp downtrend (Source: CryptoQuant)

The slowdown represents a stark shift for the company, which spent much of 2023 and 2024 aggressively accumulating Bitcoin as part of its long-term treasury strategy.

Large November Buy Shows Strategy Hasn’t Fully Stepped Back

Despite the significant decline in monthly purchases, the company did make a notable acquisition on Nov. 17. The company bought 8,178 BTC for approximately $835.5 million, its largest purchase since July. 

That transaction brought its total holdings to 649,870 BTC, worth around $58.7 billion at current prices.

Even so, the broader trend points to restraint. 

Analysts say Strategy’s reduced buying coincides with a cooling of the “BTC proxy trade” — a market phenomenon in which investors sought exposure to Bitcoin through publicly traded treasuries and mining firms during the bull cycle.

The fade in that trade, coupled with ongoing macro uncertainty, has placed renewed scrutiny on Strategy’s capital structure and long-term liquidity plans.

Concerns Rise Over Strategy’s Balance Sheet and BTC-Backed Approach

Market speculation around the company has grown in recent months as crypto prices have weakened and liquidity across the sector has tightened. In November, CEO Phong Le acknowledged for the first time that the firm might consider selling Bitcoin to meet its financial obligations, but only under specific circumstances.

Le said that BTC sales would be considered only if the company’s stock traded below its net asset value (NAV) or if Strategy lost access to financing. “This is not our base case,” he stressed, adding that the company still views Bitcoin as its primary long-term treasury asset.

To reinforce its financial position, Strategy established a $1.4 billion cash reserve to cover dividends and debt service for at least 12 months. The company also announced plans to expand that reserve to create a full 24-month liquidity buffer, which aligns with CryptoQuant’s assessment that Strategy is preparing for sustained market pressure.

Index Inclusion Ambitions Face Major Hurdles

As the company works to strengthen its balance sheet, a separate challenge has emerged: potential exclusion from major stock indexes.

MSCI — the influential index provider whose criteria help determine which companies are included in global benchmarks — has proposed a new policy that would bar firms holding 50% or more of their balance-sheet assets in cryptocurrencies. 

Such a rule would immediately disqualify Strategy, cutting it off from billions in passive inflows tied to index-tracking funds.

Michael Saylor, the company’s co-founder and one of Bitcoin’s most vocal supporters, said Strategy is actively engaging with MSCI regarding the proposal, which is expected to take effect in January. He has argued publicly that excluding crypto-heavy treasuries from indexes risks misrepresenting the market at a time when Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a globally relevant asset.

A Defensive Shift as Strategy Navigates the Next Phase of the Cycle

While Strategy has not abandoned its Bitcoin accumulation strategy, the shift in purchasing behavior — combined with the buildup of a sizable cash reserve — marks a notable change in tone from the aggressive accumulation that defined the prior bull market.

Analysts say the company is bracing for a more challenging environment ahead, one where liquidity, solvency, and index eligibility may weigh just as heavily as Bitcoin’s price trajectory. 

Whether the company’s more cautious approach proves to be a defensive masterstroke or a temporary adjustment will depend on how long the market remains under pressure — and how quickly the broader crypto cycle turns.