Strategy’s mNAV Drops Below 1 but Analysts Say the Real Rally Is Coming
TD Cowen analysts say neither Strategy’s drop below an mNAV of 1 — meaning its stock now trades at a discount to the market value of its bitcoin holdings — nor Bitcoin’s slide to seven-month lows has weakened their long-term conviction.
In a new note, the firm said Strategy remains positioned for “substantial upside†as its leveraged bitcoin accumulation model continues to scale.
Analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete reaffirmed their $585 price target for MSTR, implying roughly 170% upside from the company’s current share price near $195.
Strategy share price (Source: Google Finance)
The current discount, they said, reflects market volatility rather than any deterioration in Strategy’s underlying ability to accumulate incremental bitcoin.
Bitcoin Weakness Hasn’t Shaken Saylor’s Resolve
Bitcoin has been under sustained pressure for several weeks, falling from its early-October all-time high above $126,000 to about $92,700 — slipping below its 2025 opening price of $93,400.
Despite the downturn, Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor has stayed aggressive. The company executed its largest bitcoin purchase since July, pushing its holdings to 649,870 BTC. Strategy now controls more than 3% of the total supply, far exceeding any other public company.
Cowen emphasized that these moves show the company’s design: a capital structure engineered to translate market appetite for leverage, yield, and liquidity into more BTC whenever conditions allow.
The analysts said short-term turbulence does nothing to alter that blueprint.
Cowen Models Over 800,000 BTC by 2027
The firm’s long-term projections remain unchanged. Cowen still models Strategy holding 815,000 BTC by the end of 2027 — a stash they estimate will exceed $185 billion under their base-case price assumptions. At those levels, Cowen argues Strategy’s intrinsic bitcoin value per share would land close to their $585 target.
The analysts called this a “reasonable outcome†over the next year, given the company’s embedded leverage to bitcoin’s price performance and its ability to expand its treasury through convertible notes and equity raises.
S&P 500 Inclusion and Regulatory Clarity Could Add Fuel
Cowen pointed to several potential catalysts that could further strengthen Strategy’s position. One is the possibility of S&P 500 inclusion in December 2025, which the analysts said could draw in major institutional flows from index funds and passive investment vehicles.
Such a move could help stabilize trading activity and narrow the gap between Strategy’s stock price and its underlying bitcoin value.
The firm also cited growing prospects for clearer U.S. regulatory guidance around bitcoin — particularly regarding KYC, AML, and federal tax treatment. Improved clarity, they said, would likely boost investor confidence and reduce perceived risks, making bitcoin-exposed equities more accessible to traditional institutions.
While Strategy is now overwhelmingly valued for its bitcoin holdings, Cowen noted that its cloud software division continues to generate incremental revenue. Though not the primary driver of valuation, the business provides a diversification element and additional cash flow that supports its broader accumulation.
Strategy Remains a Long-Horizon Bet on Bitcoin Outperformance
Ultimately, Cowen reiterated that Strategy is built for investors who expect bitcoin to outperform most other assets over a long time horizon. The company’s capital structure — a mix of convertible debt, equity offerings, and disciplined treasury management — is explicitly designed to expand BTC holdings through market cycles.
Short-term dislocations, including the current discount to its bitcoin market value, are not signs of weakness, Cowen argued. Instead, they may be opportunities. If bitcoin stabilizes and Strategy continues adding to its reserves, the analysts believe the current discount is unlikely to persist.
