JPMorgan Predicts $404 Coinbase Rally as Base Token Hype Grows
Wall Street giant JPMorgan (JPM) has upgraded Coinbase (COIN) from “neutral” to “overweight” and lifted its price target to $404, citing new monetization opportunities and reduced risks that make the crypto exchange more attractive than its peers.
Coinbase shares climbed over 8% in early trading to around $349.56, reflecting renewed optimism among investors following the bank’s bullish call.
COIN price (Source: Google Finance)
Base Token Could Unlock Billions in Value
In its report, JPMorgan highlighted two major catalysts driving the upgrade — the potential for a Base token and improved USDC payouts.
The analysts said that exchange is exploring a native token for Base, the Layer 2 blockchain it launched in August 2023, which has rapidly become one of the largest in the ecosystem.
A token, according to JPMorgan, could help Coinbase capture a greater share of Base’s growth, estimating a potential $12 billion to $34 billion market cap — with as much as $12 billion in value potentially accruing directly to Coinbase.
JPMorgan noted that the introduction of such a token could encourage more community participation, developer engagement, and long-term infrastructure growth, cementing Base’s role as a central pillar of the exchange’s ecosystem.
Monetizing USDC Through Coinbase One
The bank also pointed to Coinbase’s push to better monetize USDC, the stablecoin it co-manages with Circle, through its Coinbase One subscription service.
Coinbase USDC yields (Source: Coinbase)
By offering nearly 4% yields to subscribers and segmenting users based on their participation level, the analysts believe the exchange could add about $1 per share in annual earnings. The move represents a significant shift toward sustainable revenue streams beyond traditional trading fees, helping the exchange weather market cycles and interest-rate fluctuations.
Competition Risks Ease as Market Share Stabilizes
While competition from decentralized exchanges (DEXs) remains a concern, JPMorgan said the market share balance between DEXs and centralized exchanges has largely stabilized. The analysts noted that Coinbase’s integrated model — spanning brokerage, market-making, exchange, and custody services — positions it to remain profitable even if fees decline.
This diversified structure, they said, reduces the exchange’s dependency on trading volume alone and supports long-term earnings visibility.
A Valuation Anchored on Growth and Innovation
In setting the $404 price target, JPMorgan valued the exchange at 50 times projected 2027 earnings, factoring in around $4 billion in potential value from a Base token.
The analysts said this outlook reflects a “balanced mix of innovation, monetization, and risk reduction” across the company’s ecosystem.
By betting on tokenized infrastructure and stablecoin yield strategies, JPMorgan signaled confidence that the firm’s next phase of growth could extend well beyond its core exchange business.
