Glassnode Warns Bitcoin’s Bull Run Could End Sooner Than You Think
Bitcoin’s historic rally may be approaching its climax.
According to Glassnode co-founders Jan Happel and Yan Allemann, the world’s largest cryptocurrency could reach the peak of its current cycle within just four to five weeks, marking what could be the final leg of this explosive bull run.
Bitcoin’s New High and Rapid Pullback
The prediction follows Bitcoin’s new record high of $125,708 on the Bitstamp exchange — a milestone that briefly pushed the crypto market into euphoria. However, the celebration was short-lived. Within hours, BTC retraced and fell below the $123,000 level, erasing much of its weekend gains. It has, however, since recovered slightly to trade above $124,000 at the time of writing.
BTC price (Source: CoinMarketCap)
Analysts described the surge as a possible “Sunday fakeout”, a short-lived rally driven by thin weekend liquidity rather than fundamental demand.
Still, with Bitcoin maintaining its position near record levels, traders are now debating whether the market has one final push left before the next correction.
The Glassnode Outlook
Happel and Allemann, known online as “Negentropic,” believe Bitcoin remains on track to hit its cycle top by late October or mid-November. Their analysis is based on a combination of on-chain data and historical cycle behavior, which suggest that Bitcoin’s current trend still has momentum but may soon approach exhaustion.
They note that while the market appears euphoric, key peak indicators—such as realized profit-to-loss ratios and long-term holder activity—haven’t yet reached extremes typically seen at major tops. This, they argue, leaves room for one more rally before the inevitable cooling phase begins.
Can Bitcoin Still Go Higher?
Some market watchers, including Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, continue to believe BTC could surpass $200,000 by year-end. But the Glassnode co-founders caution that such a move is unlikely within the short timeframe they outlined.
Data from prediction markets reflect that skepticism. According to Polymarket odds, Bitcoin has only about a 1% chance of hitting $200,000 in October, and just a 7% probability of reaching that level before the end of 2025.
Nonetheless, several bullish arguments remain. Some analysts point out that Bitcoin is still underperforming historical benchmarks by as much as 10%, meaning the asset could continue higher if it catches up. Others highlight that if Bitcoin were to match its 2021 peak against gold, its price could theoretically exceed $150,000, assuming gold prices remain stable.
Market Sentiment and Key Levels
The recent retracement has brought attention back to critical support levels between $120,000 and $123,000. A decisive break below this zone could spark a deeper correction, while holding above it may set the stage for another leg up.
Market structure indicators also suggest that volatility is likely to rise, particularly as traders anticipate confirmation of whether Bitcoin’s next move will be an upward breakout or a broader consolidation phase.
What Comes Next
If Glassnode’s four-to-five-week timeline proves accurate, Bitcoin may be entering the final stretch of this bull market — a phase often characterized by parabolic surges followed by sharp reversals.
For now, traders are watching for sustained volume, liquidity inflows, and long-term holder behavior as the clearest signals of whether the market’s “grand finale” is near.
Whether this cycle ends in a blowoff top or a gradual fade, one thing is certain: the next few weeks could define Bitcoin’s trajectory for years to come.
