As Recession Fears Mount, Bitcoin Defies Wall Street Gloom With Fresh Gains

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Bitcoin is defying the gloom.

The largest cryptocurrency is trading about 4% higher than it was a week ago — a rally that stands in sharp contrast to the grim tone of the latest U.S. economic data.

BTC price chart (Source: CoinMarketCap)

For investors, it’s a paradox: the worse the economy looks, the more attractive Bitcoin seems to become.

The Macro Backdrop: Clouds Over the Economy

Last week’s economic data offered little comfort.

Jobs revision shock: Government revisions revealed the U.S. actually created nearly 1 million fewer jobs than originally reported over the year through March — the steepest downward correction on record.
Weak hiring: The most recent payrolls report showed just 22,000 jobs added in August, with unemployment climbing to 4.3%.
Jobless claims rising: Initial claims jumped to 263,000, the highest level since late 2021.
Sticky inflation: Thursday’s CPI release came in hotter than expected, suggesting price pressures are lingering.

Put it all together and the whispers of “stagflation” are getting louder again — an economy slowing down while inflation refuses to cool.

Bitcoin’s Countermove

And yet, Bitcoin didn’t flinch. Instead, it kept grinding higher, nearly closing a CME futures gap at $117,300. The resilience reflects a broader rotation back into risk assets, as traders bet the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to cut interest rates.

Equities are riding the same wave: the S&P 500 hit fresh highs last week on the expectation of looser policy.

For Bitcoin specifically, technicals remain constructive. Higher lows have formed since September’s bottom at $107,500, while the 200-day moving average is trending up around $102,000. Another key metric, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price — often a reliable bull market support — has climbed to a record above $109,000.

Short Term Realized Price (Source: Glassnode)

In other words, the foundation under BTC keeps getting stronger, even as traditional data screams weakness.

Bitcoin-Linked Equities: A Mixed Story

While Bitcoin is up, the same can’t be said for every crypto-exposed stock.

Strategy (MSTR), the poster child for corporate Bitcoin treasuries, was flat for the week, still struggling to get back above its 200-day average around $355.
MARA Holdings (MARA) gained about 7%.
XXI (CEP) added around 4%.

The divergence shows that while Bitcoin itself benefits directly from monetary easing bets, corporate balance sheets and equity premiums face more complex pressures — from issuance strategies to leverage costs.

What’s Next

The CME FedWatch tool now shows markets are pricing in a 25 basis-point rate cut this week, with two more by year-end. That expectation has already pushed the 10-year Treasury yield briefly below 4% — a bullish backdrop for growth assets, crypto included.

Still, the dollar index (DXY) is clinging to multiyear support levels, making its next move a potential swing factor for all markets.

For now, though, Bitcoin seems to be embracing its role as a barometer of risk sentiment. The economy may be flashing warning signs, but BTC is sending traders a very different message: the rally isn’t over.

Author

Steven Walgenbach

Steven's passion for cryptocurrency and blockchain technology began in 2014, inspiring him to immerse himself in the field. He notably secured a top 5 world ranking in robotics. While he initially pursued a computer science degree at the University of Texas at Arlington, he chose to pause his studies after two semesters to take a more hands-on approach in advancing cryptocurrency technology. During this period, he actively worked on multiple patents related to cryptocurrency and blockchain. Additionally, Steven has explored various areas of the financial sector, including banking and financial markets, developing prototypes such as fully autonomous trading bots and intuitive interfaces that streamline blockchain integration, among other innovations.

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