Bitcoin Enters Supply Shock Phase Amid Institutional Accumulation, Sygnum Research Head Warns
Bitcoin (BTC) may be on the brink of a historic supply squeeze that could catalyze exponential price growth, according to Katalin Tischhauser, head of research at digital asset banking group Sygnum. In an interview, Tischhauser warned that a steadily declining pool of liquid BTC, combined with surging institutional demand, sets the stage for a more dramatic market reaction than seen in previous cycles.
“Large demand will have a strong multiplier effect, meaning every $1 of demand leading to, say, $20–30 additional market capitalization,” Tischhauser explained. “We have already seen this multiplier effect after the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETFs or around the US elections.”
Institutional Bitcoin Demand Meets Diminishing Supply
Tischhauser emphasized that the current BTC environment is unique due to its structural supply constraints. Over the past 18 months, liquid Bitcoin—defined as BTC readily available for trading—has been steadily decreasing, largely due to long-term holding patterns and the rise of acquisition-focused vehicles.
Entities like Strategy, Twenty One Capital, and other BTC-focused funds have soaked up significant portions of the circulating BTC supply, reducing availability for everyday retail and institutional traders.
Corporate BTC holdings (Source: BitcoinTreasuries)
This trend is amplified by the influx of institutional capital spurred by the launch of spot BTC ETFs, which have only recorded four days of outflows since April 16, a sign of persistent and growing interest from sophisticated investors.
Regulatory Tailwinds and Deflationary Allure
Beyond raw supply-and-demand dynamics, Tischhauser pointed to improved regulatory clarity in jurisdictions like the United States and Europe as further catalysts for institutional adoption. Coupled with macroeconomic uncertainties and a high-interest-rate environment, Bitcoin’s identity as a deflationary, non-sovereign asset is gaining renewed appeal.
While some analysts are calling for explosive price targets ranging from $130,000 to as high as $1.5 million, others caution that the current phase of Bitcoin’s market cycle may involve a necessary period of sideways movement.
Nick Forster, founder of Derive, said that Bitcoin is likely entering a “phase of consolidation,” which he views as a “healthy pause” following its recent rally.
What Comes Next?
If the multiplier effect described by Tischhauser holds, the implications of even modest inflows from pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, or major asset managers could result in parabolic moves in the Bitcoin price. As Bitcoin tightens its grip as a macro hedge and digital store of value, its supply dynamics may become the most critical variable to watch in the months ahead.
