Arthur Hayes Doubts U.S. Will Expand Bitcoin Reserve, Reaffirms Classic Altcoin Cycle Strategy
In a candid interview on May 1 with crypto investor Kyle Chassé, Arthur Hayes, the outspoken co-founder of BitMEX, expressed skepticism that the United States will go beyond its current Bitcoin stockpile to actively build a national reserve.
His comments come just weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve and digital asset stockpile.
“I’m not really into the whole Strategic Reserve situation,” Arthur Hayes said during the discussion, brushing off recent policy signals suggesting growing U.S. interest in crypto reserves.
The U.S. currently holds around 198,012 Bitcoin — valued at over $18 billion — mostly from seizures linked to high-profile cases like the Silk Road and Bitfinex hack. But Hayes believes the country’s ballooning fiscal deficit and entrenched stereotypes surrounding Bitcoin culture will deter any further accumulation through direct purchases.
Also read: Arthur Hayes: This Might Be the “Last Chance” to Buy Bitcoin Under $100K
“The United States is a deficit country; the only way they can do a Strategic Reserve is not sell the Bitcoin they took from people… That’s 200,000 Bitcoin,” he explained.
Arthur Hayes Pushes Back Against National Bitcoin FOMO
While Arthur Hayes dismisses the idea of aggressive Bitcoin accumulation by the U.S., others in the crypto industry believe the opposite could soon unfold.
At a conference in Dubai, 1inch co-founder Sergej Kunz warned that if the U.S. began actively buying Bitcoin for strategic purposes, it could ignite a global scramble for the asset.
“I’m pretty sure we’ll soon see countries battling over who owns more Bitcoin. The U.S. will start,” Kunz said, highlighting the potential for sovereign-level Bitcoin competition that could mirror an arms race.
Indeed, with Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins, even modest buying from national governments could create an explosive supply shock — a theory that has fueled speculation across both retail and institutional markets.
Bitcoin Dominance to Rise Before Altcoin Rotation, Says Arthur Hayes
Turning his attention to market dynamics, Hayes remains committed to a well-worn crypto investing script: rising Bitcoin dominance followed by an explosive altcoin season.
“I personally think Bitcoin dominance is going back to where it was before the 2021 altcoin season — about 70%,” Hayes predicted. “Then people just start rotating.”
Despite diverging views from analysts like Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen — who caps Bitcoin dominance potential at around 60% — Hayes is firm in his belief that the historical playbook remains intact.
“Bull markets are back, and altcoins should outperform. Should is the keyword there,” he noted. “Depends on what you buy.”
Also read: Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Explained
As of now, Bitcoin dominance stands at 64.78%, up nearly 12% from the 57.59% recorded on Jan. 1, according to TradingView. The surge has sparked renewed debate over whether the metric could once again hit 70%, a level not seen since before the explosion of altcoin innovation and market participation in 2021.
Bitcoin dominance was 57.59% on Jan. 1 (Source: TradingView)
New Metrics for Altcoin Season?
Not everyone is aligned with Arthur Hayes’ thesis. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has argued that “altseason is no longer defined by asset rotation from Bitcoin,” pointing instead to trading volume patterns against stablecoins and fiat as more accurate indicators of altcoin strength.
Altcoin Season Index (Source: CoinMarketCap)
While traditional signals may be evolving, Hayes believes investor behavior — driven by hype cycles and portfolio rebalancing — still adheres to recognizable patterns. If he’s right, altcoins could be poised for outsized gains once Bitcoin consolidates its current rally.
