ARK Invest Boosts Bitcoin Price Forecast to $2.4M on Supply and Demand Shift

One of the leading asset managers, ARK Invest, has projected a 2030 Bitcoin price bull case of $2.4 million in an adjusted model.

This figure, compared with adjustments for dormant supply, is an increase from ARK’s official bull case of $1.5 million projected in its April 24, 2025, report. 

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The $2.4 million estimate shows a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 72% from Bitcoin’s price of ~$94,000 on Dec. 31, 2024, a sign of strong confidence in its long-term value.

Bitcoin Price Target (Source: Ark Invest)

Bitcoin’s Hidden Supply: Fueling ARK’s Big Prediction  

The official report includes a base case of $710,000 for the Bitcoin price (CAGR ~40%) and a bear case of $300,000 (CAGR ~21%). 

An experimental model in ARK’s report, accounting for “active supply” with 60% liveliness, yields a bull case of ~$2.1 million, supporting the $2.4 million figure that comes from further supply adjustments. 

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The Factors Driving ARK’s Bitcoin Price Prediction  

The $1.5 million bull case and the $2.4 million model rely on several key drivers. Institutional investment, with a 6.5% penetration into a $200 trillion global market portfolio, excluding gold, accounts for 43.4% of the valuation. 

Bitcoin’s status as “digital gold,” taking 60% of gold’s $18 trillion market capitalization, contributes 35.5% to the predicted price. Additionally, the growing market demand, penetrating 6% of a $68 trillion monetary base, adds another 13.5%. 

Price Target Assumptions (Source: Ark Invest)

These estimates are consistent across ARK’s report, showing Bitcoin’s increasing use as a store of value and safe haven asset.

What Investors Need to Know About Bitcoin’s Big Bet  

ARK Invest’s projections, led by CEO Cathie Wood, show Bitcoin’s potential for major growth by 2030, with the $2.4 million projection as proof of its transformative trend. 

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However, the bear case of $300,000 points to high risks and market volatility. The gap between the official $1.5 million bull case and the $2.4 million adjusted model, likely tied to dormant supply assumptions, calls for caution.