Oppenheimer Cuts Coinbase Forecast Amid Trump Tariff Fallout
Coinbase Global, Inc., faces strained financial issues due to tariff-related tensions, according to an Oppenheimer report released April 16, 2025.
Analysts link the struggles to recession fears driven by President Trump’s tariff policies, which have diminished retail trading—a key revenue source for Coinbase.
This macroeconomic uncertainty has prompted Oppenheimer to lower its 2025 trading volume forecast for the exchange to $1.3 trillion, a 19% reduction from the previous $1.6 trillion estimate.
Also read: Is Coinbase Safe? Everything You Need To Know
The first quarter of 2025 is projected at $380 billion, down 13% quarter-over-quarter. Despite a pro-crypto market stance, the global economic fears are overshadowing the crypto market’s potential.
Coinbase Financial Forecasts Slashed Following Market Volatility
Oppenheimer’s report also cut down the exchange’s revenue and earnings projections for 2025 and 2026, though specific figures were not disclosed.
The firm lowered its share price target to $279 from $388 due to the increased risk.
Coinbase shares closed at $173.39 on April 16, down 1.2%, with a year-to-date decline of 30%, behind Bitcoin’s 10% drop and the S&P 500’s 8% fall.
Despite holding a 69% share of U.S. spot crypto trading in February 2025, the exchange was not spared the tariff-caused market downturn.
Also read: Top Coinbase Competitors: Best Exchanges To Consider
A 16.8% stock rally on April 9, following Trump’s 90-day tariff delay announcement, is proof of the stock’s sensitivity to policy decisions.
COIN share chart (Source: MarketScreener)
Long-Term Potential Relies on Policy Shifts
In spite of the near-term pressure, Oppenheimer remains bullish on the prospects of Coinbase, labeling the exchange’s stock a “strong rebound stock” should tariff tensions ease.
The firm noted Coinbase’s leadership in the crypto market, with growth opportunities in tokenization and payments, putting it at the forefront for a potential premium valuation over time.
Recent investment activity, including Ark Invest’s $4.8 million purchase of COIN shares, as previously reported by Ecoinimist, ahead of anticipated tariffs, shows ongoing investor confidence.
Traders and stakeholders are advised to keep an eye on macroeconomic and policy developments closely, as these could trigger market recovery.
Also read: Coinbase Stakes Its Claim: Now the Largest Ethereum Node Operator
For now, the exchange navigates a volatile environment, balancing immediate pressures with long-term potentials.
