Strategy Could Control 5% of All Bitcoin in Bullish Bernstein Forecast
In an aggressive projection that sheds light on Bitcoin’s growing institutional foothold, analysts at Bernstein have laid out a “bull case scenario” in which Strategy — the bitcoin treasury and software company formerly known as MicroStrategy — could more than double its current BTC holdings to exceed 1 million bitcoin. That would represent nearly 5% of Bitcoin’s total capped supply of 21 million.
Also read: Michael Saylor Aims To Create MicroStrategy Bitcoin Bank
The update follows Strategy’s Q4 financial results and the company’s latest BTC buying spree. Led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, Bernstein’s research team has updated their valuation model and reiterated an outperform rating for Strategy’s stock, assigning a price target of $600 — roughly 75% upside from current levels.
A Treasury Strategy Built on Bullish BTC Bets
Bernstein employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation for the company, factoring in both its enterprise software arm and bitcoin treasury. The firm assigns a 2x EV/sales multiple to the software business and attaches a 55% long-term premium to its bitcoin stash — consistent with Strategy’s historical market value since pivoting toward Bitcoin accumulation in August 2020.
Key to the bullish outlook is Bitcoin’s projected price trajectory: Bernstein expects BTC to hit $200,000 by the end of 2025, reach $500,000 by 2029, and ultimately climb to $1 million by 2033, despite intermittent bear markets along the way.
Also read: Michael Saylor: The Man Behind MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Investment
Under this optimistic scenario, Strategy’s BTC holdings would rise from about 2.5% of the current 19.8 million circulating supply to 5.8%, potentially amassing over 1 million BTC. The firm’s debt would grow to an estimated $100 billion — up from $11 billion today — with equity proceeds climbing to around $84 billion, enabling aggressive BTC accumulation through capital raises and debt-financed purchases.
From Bull to Bear: The Range of Outcomes
Bernstein also detailed more conservative and bearish scenarios. In the base case, the firm would control closer to 4% of the circulating bitcoin supply by 2033, backed by a more moderate $51 billion in debt.
However, the bear case envisions a bleaker path: a prolonged bear market post-$200,000 BTC peak this year would cap Strategy’s holdings around 2.6% of the total supply. This scenario could force the firm to scale back its ambitious BTC acquisition strategy or even liquidate assets to cover obligations, including out-of-the-money convertibles and preferred share dividends.
500K BTC Milestone and Still Buying
Strategy’s bitcoin buying ambitions are far from hypothetical. Earlier this week, the company announced it had crossed the 500,000 BTC milestone following the acquisition of an additional 6,911 BTC for roughly $584.1 million in cash — at an average price of $84,529 per bitcoin — between March 17 and March 23.
Also read: Bitcoin and Ethereum Whales Accumulate as Prices Recover From Recent Lows
The purchases were funded through sales of its Class A common stock (MSTR) and perpetual preferred stock (STRK), further illustrating the firm’s innovative capital market maneuvers to accumulate bitcoin.
A Bitcoin Behemoth in the Making
The company’s transformation into a corporate bitcoin juggernaut continues to attract both investor enthusiasm and scrutiny. Whether it becomes the single-largest BTC holder in the world or hits a leverage ceiling depends largely on market conditions, regulatory sentiment, and the broader Bitcoin cycle.
Also read: Strategy Eyes More Bitcoin With $711M War Chest
For now, Bernstein’s forecast signals that Strategy’s bitcoin-centric model, while controversial to some, may just be beginning to reveal its full long-term upside.
