Trump Crypto Executive Order Could Reshape Crypto Market Cycles, Says Bitwise Investment Chief

The recent executive order signed by U.S. President Donald Trump on January 23 could disrupt the traditional crypto market four-year boom and bust cycle, according to Bitwise Investment Chief Matt Hougan.

In a note dated January 29, Hougan highlighted the significance of Trump’s directive, which aims to explore the creation of a digital asset stockpile and draft a comprehensive regulatory framework. He emphasized that the executive order, coupled with significant changes at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), marks the “full mainstreaming of crypto,” paving the way for banks and Wall Street institutions to aggressively expand into the space.

“Crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are already large enough to attract billions from new investors, but this executive order could usher in an era where trillions flow into digital assets,” Hougan stated.

End of the Four-Year Crypto Market Cycle?

Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market has historically followed a four-year cycle, experiencing major downturns in 2014, 2018, and 2022, with each decline followed by multi-year bull markets leading to new all-time highs. If the pattern persists, another crypto market correction is anticipated in 2026. However, Hougan suggested that the structure of these cycles may be shifting due to institutional involvement and regulatory clarity.

Also read: Understanding the Basics of Crypto Market Making

While he does not expect the cycle to be fully eradicated, Hougan believes any future pullbacks will be “shorter and shallower” compared to previous downturns. “The crypto space has matured significantly, with a wider variety of buyers and more value-oriented investors than ever before,” he noted. “I expect volatility, but I wouldn’t bet against crypto in 2026.”

Regulatory Shifts and Wall Street’s Role

Trump’s executive order is not expected to show its full impact immediately, as White House crypto czar David Sacks will need time to develop a robust regulatory framework. Meanwhile, Wall Street firms and traditional banks will also require time to integrate crypto into their financial operations.

One immediate advantage for financial institutions is the SEC’s recent reversal of Staff Accounting Bulletin 121, which previously required banks to record crypto holdings as liabilities on their balance sheets. The removal of this rule significantly eases custody restrictions, allowing institutions to hold and manage digital assets more efficiently.

Also read: Essential Strategies for Day Trading Crypto

A New Era for Bitcoin?

Bitwise remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. The firm has reiterated its $200,000 price prediction for Bitcoin by the end of 2025, stating that the target is achievable with or without a government-backed strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Previous crypto market downturns were exacerbated by major industry collapses, including the 2022 bankruptcies of FTX, Three Arrows Capital, Genesis, BlockFi, and Celsius. Earlier cycles were also impacted by regulatory actions, such as the SEC’s crackdown on initial coin offerings and the fallout from Mt. Gox’s collapse.

Also read: A Guide to Bitcoin Fractals

With clearer regulations and growing institutional interest, Hougan believes the days of prolonged crypto winters may be coming to an end. Whether Bitcoin’s traditional cycle persists or transforms into something entirely new remains to be seen, but one thing is certain—crypto’s role in the financial system is becoming more significant than ever.