Bitcoin Near $89K as $2.2B in BTC and ETH Options Settle in 2026’s First Big Test
More than $2.2 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire today, marking the first broad-based derivatives settlement of 2026 and putting crypto markets on alert for potential volatility.
With both assets trading near key strike levels, traders are closely watching how prices react once the contracts roll off. Historically, large options expirations have acted as inflection points, particularly when spot prices hover around so-called “max pain” levels where the largest number of options expire worthless.
Bitcoin Options Dominate the Expiry
Bitcoin accounts for the lion’s share of today’s settlement, with roughly $1.87 billion in notional value tied to BTC options. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $88,691, slightly above the max pain level of $88,000.
BTC price (Source: CoinGecko)
Open interest data shows 14,194 call contracts versus 6,806 put contracts, bringing total open interest to 21,001.
That results in a put-to-call ratio of 0.48, a structure that points to bullish positioning rather than defensive hedging.
The skew suggests traders have been positioning for higher prices into the expiry window, with fewer participants paying for downside protection. However, such optimism can also amplify risk if price momentum stalls near key levels.
Ethereum Positioning Shows Cautious Optimism
Ethereum options make up approximately $395.7 million in notional value, smaller than Bitcoin’s share but still significant. ETH is trading around $3,023, modestly above its max pain level of $2,950.
Open interest remains elevated, with 80,957 calls and 49,998 puts outstanding, resulting in total open interest of 130,955 and a put-to-call ratio of 0.62. While this reflects less aggressive bullishness than Bitcoin, it still indicates optimism rather than fear-driven hedging.
Compared with BTC, Ethereum’s options structure suggests traders are confident but more measured, potentially reflecting ETH’s recent price consolidation and sensitivity to broader market conditions.
Why Options Expiry Matters for Price Action
Options settlement periods are critical moments for derivatives markets. As contracts expire, traders must either exercise their rights or allow positions to lapse, often concentrating price action around max pain levels that benefit option sellers.
When spot prices sit near these levels, short-term volatility can be suppressed. But when prices drift meaningfully above or below them, volatility can emerge quickly as hedges are unwound and dealers adjust exposure.
The fact that both Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading just above their respective max pain levels raises the possibility of post-expiry price movement once those gravitational forces disappear.
Institutional Flows Reinforce a Bullish Bias
Positioning data points to continued institutional interest on the upside.
Bitcoin block trades—often associated with structured or institutional strategies—show calls accounting for 36.4% of volume, compared with 24.9% for puts.
Ethereum’s block trade skew is even more pronounced, with calls representing 73.7% of executed volume. Such flows typically reflect longer-term positioning rather than short-term speculation, reinforcing the idea that professional traders are leaning bullish into the early part of the year.
This optimism is not limited to near-dated contracts. Bitcoin options volume is concentrated in March and June 2026 expiries, while Ethereum shows sustained interest across quarterly maturities throughout the year. The pattern suggests traders are positioning not only for short-term moves, but for broader upside over the coming months.
Volatility Risks After the Expiry
Despite the bullish skew, the concentration of expiring contracts introduces near-term risk. As hedged positions roll off, price stability can weaken, particularly if spot prices fail to extend higher.
A market tilted toward calls creates a binary setup. A breakout could fuel gamma-driven momentum, while a failure to rally may leave a large number of calls expiring worthless, potentially triggering short-term pullbacks as traders reassess exposure.
As positions are rolled and portfolios reset, the aftermath of this first major options expiry of 2026 is likely to shape volatility in both Bitcoin and Ethereum into the weekend and beyond. Whether bullish sentiment translates into sustained gains or meets resistance should become clearer once the derivatives-driven pressures fully unwind.
