Bitcoin’s Bear Market May Already Be 2 Months In, Says CryptoQuant Research Head
Bitcoin may have already entered a new bear market phase, according to CryptoQuant, with key technical and on-chain indicators turning bearish in early November and failing to recover since.
Speaking on the Milk Road show this week, Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, said the firm’s internal metrics suggest Bitcoin’s broader market structure shifted roughly two months ago. While short-term rallies and volatility remain possible, Moreno argued the underlying trend has already flipped.
CryptoQuant’s assessment is based on its proprietary bull score index, which aggregates multiple data points into a single reading ranging from 0 to 100. The index tracks network activity, investor profitability, Bitcoin demand, and market liquidity. According to Moreno, most of those inputs have been flashing warning signs since early November.
One-Year Moving Average Marks Key Turning Point
For Moreno, the clearest confirmation came from a familiar long-term technical indicator: Bitcoin’s move below its one-year moving average.
The one-year moving average reflects the average price of Bitcoin over the previous 12 months and is widely used to distinguish between sustained uptrends and broader downtrends. Historically, Bitcoin trading above that level has coincided with bull markets, while prolonged moves below it have aligned with bearish phases.
BTC price drops below 1-year SMA (Source: TradingView)
“For me, the last confirmation is the price going below its one-year moving average,” Moreno said. “That tends to mark the transition into bearish conditions.”
Bitcoin’s recent price action appears to fit that historical pattern.
After starting 2025 near $93,000, the asset rallied sharply to a peak of roughly $126,080 in October before reversing course.
By year-end, Bitcoin had fallen below its opening level for the year, according to data from CoinGecko. At press time, it was trading around $88,794.
The downturn has challenged expectations among some investors that 2026 would automatically bring another strong growth phase following Bitcoin’s prior rally. Instead, Moreno believes the market may still be in the process of searching for a durable bottom.
Bear Market Bottom Seen Between $56,000 and $60,000
Based on Bitcoin’s realized price — the average price at which current holders acquired their coins — Moreno estimates a potential bear market low in the $56,000 to $60,000 range over the coming year.
During extended downturns, Bitcoin has historically gravitated back toward its realized price after periods of rapid appreciation. Moreno noted that the current gap between spot prices and realized levels suggests additional downside risk if bearish conditions persist.
A move into that range would imply a drawdown of roughly 55% from Bitcoin’s all-time high. While substantial, Moreno described that potential decline as relatively modest compared with previous bear markets.
Prior bear markets have seen losses of 70% to 80% from peak levels, often accompanied by cascading failures across the crypto industry.
Structural Differences Could Limit Downside
Moreno also emphasized that this market cycle looks structurally different from prior downturns, particularly the 2022 collapse that followed the implosions of Terra, Celsius, and FTX.
So far, the current slowdown has not been accompanied by major systemic failures or forced liquidations across the crypto industry. Instead, Moreno pointed to a broader and more diversified investor base, including institutional participants and exchange-traded funds, that may help stabilize demand.
“In previous bear markets, demand was basically contracting across the board,” he said. “Now you have more institutional players and ETFs that don’t sell aggressively, and there’s still some consistent buying.”
That shift, combined with more mature market infrastructure and regulatory clarity in key jurisdictions, could help cushion the downside even if Bitcoin remains in a bearish phase through much of 2026.
Still, Moreno cautioned that bearish markets are often defined by long periods of consolidation rather than sudden crashes. If CryptoQuant’s signals prove accurate, Bitcoin investors may need to adjust expectations away from rapid upside and toward patience as the market works through its next cycle.
