Will 2026 Mark Crypto’s Next Bull Market Or A Structural Reset?
As the cryptocurrency market looks past short-term volatility, a broader debate is emerging around what 2026 could represent for digital assets.
Some industry observers see the foundations of another bull market forming, driven by macroeconomic stress and regulatory progress. Others expect a cooler phase for prices that nonetheless accelerates crypto’s evolution into an institutionally dominated market.
Two recent outlooks from Grayscale and Cantor Fitzgerald highlight this divide, while converging on one key point: the market’s center of gravity is shifting decisively toward institutions.
Macro Pressures Continue To Support The Bull Case
Speaking on CNBC’s Crypto World, Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s head of research, said the primary force behind Bitcoin’s long-term demand remains macroeconomic in nature.
“There’s a lot of things happening in crypto … but the biggest asset in the market, Bitcoin, is driven because of demand for alternative stores of value because of debt and deficits and the risk of fiat currency debasement,” Pandl said.
Rising government debt, persistent fiscal deficits, and concerns about currency debasement are pushing investors to reassess traditional portfolios. According to Pandl, these pressures are structural rather than cyclical, meaning they are unlikely to dissipate quickly. As a result, reallocations toward assets like Bitcoin could extend well into 2026.
Grayscale’s 2026 digital asset outlook frames Bitcoin less as a speculative trade and more as a macro hedge, increasingly evaluated alongside gold by long-term allocators.
Regulatory Clarity Seen As A Second Major Catalyst
Beyond macro conditions, Grayscale expects regulation to play a critical role in shaping the next phase of the market. Pandl said bipartisan momentum is returning around a U.S. crypto market structure bill after delays in 2025 caused by political gridlock and a government shutdown.
“We’ve come a very long way this year in terms of the operating environment for businesses in crypto in the United States. However, there is still a long way to go,” he said.
If clearer federal rules are established, Pandl believes token issuance could become a mainstream financing tool. Startups, mature crypto firms, and even Fortune 500 companies may begin issuing tokens alongside traditional stocks and bonds, potentially altering how companies structure capital and engage investors.
Cantor Fitzgerald Warns Of A Crypto Winter In 2026
While Grayscale leans toward a constructive outlook, Cantor Fitzgerald has struck a more cautious tone. In a year-end report, analyst Brett Knoblauch warned that the market could enter a prolonged downturn in 2026, often described by traders as a crypto winter.
Knoblauch based his view on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle. After reaching an all-time high above $126,000 in October, Bitcoin has corrected more than 30% to trade near $87,700, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
BTC price (Source: CoinMarketCap)
He said further downside could see prices test the $75,000 level.
That threshold is significant for large corporate holders such as Strategy, led by executive chairman Michael Saylor, whose average acquisition price sits just under that range. A sustained move below it could place additional strain on Strategy’s shares, which have already declined sharply amid a broader pullback in crypto-related equities.
Institutional Growth Continues Beneath The Surface
Despite the bearish price outlook, Cantor Fitzgerald emphasized that a potential crypto winter would likely represent a transition rather than a collapse. The firm expects 2026 to accelerate the shift from a retail-driven market toward one dominated by institutions.
Tokenized real-world assets stand out as a key example. According to the report, on-chain RWAs such as tokenized Treasuries, credit instruments, and equities have tripled this year to $18.5 billion. Cantor forecasts that figure could approach $50 billion in 2026, even if crypto prices remain under pressure.
The bank also highlighted continued momentum in decentralized exchanges and prediction markets, noting that infrastructure improvements and institutional participation could sustain growth despite lower overall trading volumes.
A Bull Market Or An Institutional Bridge Year?
Taken together, the outlooks from Grayscale and Cantor Fitzgerald suggest that 2026 may not resemble previous crypto cycles. Prices could remain volatile or subdued, as Cantor expects, while regulatory clarity, tokenization, and institutional adoption quietly expand in the background.
Whether those forces culminate in a renewed bull market or a slower institutional build-out may depend less on speculative enthusiasm and more on how deeply crypto integrates into global financial markets.
