Bitcoin’s “IPO Moment”: Why Bitwise Says the Days of 1% Allocations Are Over
Bitcoin’s lackluster performance in 2025 — rising just 9% year-to-date and briefly slipping below $100,000 — has frustrated investors accustomed to dramatic price swings.
Despite strong inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), substantial regulatory progress, and growing institutional demand, the world’s most famous digital asset has largely moved sideways.
But according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, this stagnation is a sign of something far more significant. In a note to clients, Hougan cited a recent analysis from Wall Street veteran Jordi Visser, describing Bitcoin’s current stage as its “IPO moment.” He called the setup “extremely bullish” and argued that “the days of 1% Bitcoin allocations are over.”
A “Silent IPO” for Bitcoin
Visser compared BTC’s current behavior to a “silent IPO” — a transition from a revolutionary idea into a mainstream financial asset. Much like companies such as Facebook or Google following their stock market debuts, Bitcoin’s price has flattened as early investors take profits while new institutional players gradually build positions.
This consolidation, Visser suggested, reflects a healthy shift in ownership from risk-taking early adopters to long-term holders like corporations, ETFs, and sovereign funds. Such investors are better equipped to handle volatility and trade on longer time horizons. As a result, the BTC market can now absorb large sales without major disruptions, marking an important milestone in its evolution into a global asset class.
Hougan echoed this sentiment, saying that while Visser’s framework is only part of the broader market story, it highlights a critical transition in Bitcoin’s growth cycle.
Why Selling Isn’t a Red Flag
Hougan addressed growing concern among some crypto investors who interpreted the idea of early holders selling to institutions as a warning sign. “That is the wrong read,” he said. “Early investors selling does not mark the end of an asset’s journey; it just represents a new phase.”
He likened Bitcoin’s current stage to Facebook’s trajectory after its IPO. The social media giant’s stock remained below its debut price for over a year before climbing more than 1,500% in the years that followed. Similarly, Hougan argued, Bitcoin’s sideways performance does not indicate exhaustion but repositioning.
Meta share price (Source: Google Finance)
A Maturing Asset Class
Unlike major tech companies, BTC does not need to grow revenue or launch new products to increase in value, Hougan wrote. Its primary growth driver is adoption. Once ownership stabilizes, he said, Bitcoin’s path from its current $2.5 trillion market capitalization toward gold’s $25 trillion could unfold faster than many expect.
He also called BTC’s current price behavior “a gift” for investors willing to think long term. “I see it as an opportunity to buy more Bitcoin before it resumes its ascent,” he said.
“The Days of 1% Allocations Are Over”
Hougan compared Bitcoin’s present-day stability to the transition companies experience after going public. Post-IPO firms are typically less risky than early-stage startups — and, in Hougan’s view, Bitcoin has reached a similar point of maturity.
With broader distribution, institutional participation, and regulated ETF access, volatility has declined sharply, signaling that the crypto is evolving from a speculative asset into a mainstream portfolio component.
As risk declines, Hougan believes investors should consider larger BTC allocations. “Lower volatility makes it safer to hold more,” he said, noting that the traditional 1% portfolio weighting is quickly becoming obsolete. 5% is the new baseline, according to the analyst.
Bitwise, which has held hundreds of meetings with financial advisors and institutional investors over recent months, reports that interest in expanding Bitcoin exposure continues to rise.
“Bitcoin is going through its IPO moment,” Hougan concluded. “If history is any guide, we should celebrate by buying more.”
