Tariffs, ETFs, and a $1.8M Bitcoin: Is the Next Mega Rally Loading?

Bitcoin remains firmly positioned for long-term growth, potentially reaching $1.8 million by 2035, according to Joe Burnett, director of market research at Unchained. 

Despite recent market volatility, cautious investor sentiment, and underwhelming institutional flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, analysts continue to see a structurally bullish foundation for the leading cryptocurrency.

Burnett believes Bitcoin’s trajectory remains upward, with projections suggesting it could rival or even exceed gold’s $21 trillion market cap over the next decade. 

Also read: BlackRock ETFs Smash Records with $107B Inflows—Even Crypto Joins the Party

“If Bitcoin just hit $21 trillion and had Bitcoin-gold parity, Bitcoin would be $1 million per coin today,” Burnett explained.

He referenced two prominent models to support this forecast: the parallel model, which estimates Bitcoin could reach $1.8 million by 2035, and Michael Saylor’s “Bitcoin 24” model, which pegs the figure even higher at $2.1 million. 

Burnett described both models as solid “base cases,” noting the potential for upside if favorable macroeconomic conditions align.

Trade Tensions and ETF Performance Cloud Near-Term Sentiment

While long-term projections are bullish, short-term sentiment remains mixed as markets digest ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. According to Bitfinex analysts, the temporary 90-day tariff pause announced by US President Donald Trump has offered brief relief, but not enough to reignite full risk appetite.

Also read: XAUT Soars as Gold Hits $3,200 – Is This the Ultimate Digital Safe Haven?

“For Bitcoin and broader risk assets, it may help stabilise sentiment after a volatile Q1. However, Trump’s 90-day tariff pause is not a resolution, only a delay,” Bitfinex analysts noted in an email to Ecoinimist. 

“Investors understand that tariff threats remain on the table, and as such, positioning is unlikely to shift aggressively toward risk-on just yet.”

This hesitancy comes despite one of the largest intra-day recoveries in S&P 500 history. In crypto markets, some traders have begun unwinding downside hedges, but Bitfinex analysts emphasized that the real re-entry point for aggressive capital flows will likely come only after stronger signals—such as a dovish shift in Federal Reserve policy or an improvement in global liquidity conditions.

Also read: Bull Trap Ahead? Bitcoin Rally at Risk Amid China Tariff Fallout

S&P 500 Index price chart (Source: Google Finance)

“Bitcoin may also benefit from a slight reduction in macro pressure,” they added, “but the market will likely wait for more concrete signals… We believe that crypto could underperform equities in relative terms until this happens.”

Also read: $200K Bitcoin? Bitwise Doubles Down Amid Dollar Decline

Spot ETF Flows Fail to Impress

Institutional confidence in BTC has also shown signs of waning, particularly in the spot ETF market. After blockbuster inflows in January, demand for these vehicles has since cooled, with several seeing net outflows in recent weeks.

BTC ETF flows (Source: Farside Investors)

“The continued underperformance of Bitcoin spot ETFs, despite this macro relief, suggests institutional confidence remains cautious in the near term,” Bitfinex analysts said. 

“This reflects hesitation among large allocators who may be waiting for more favourable entry points or clearer regulatory guidance.”

This ETF slowdown has added to the sense that Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase rather than a breakout mode. Analysts argue that high timeframe investors are not yet seeing the asymmetric upside they expect relative to other risk assets.

A Coiled Market Poised for Potential Breakout

Despite short-term uncertainty, many experts believe the second half of 2025 could bring renewed bullish momentum for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. 

Burnett stressed that Bitcoin’s technological superiority and long-term adoption trajectory remain intact.

Bitfinex analysts echoed this sentiment, outlining several potential catalysts for renewed upside: “Q2 through to the year-end has strong bullish potential for crypto. If ETF flows resume, new narratives take hold (such as sovereign accumulation or real-world asset tokenisation), and regulatory rules become clearer, the second half of 2025 could mark the beginning of a strong cyclical advance.”

They further emphasized that Bitcoin is consolidating at levels significantly above its pre-election pricing and that foundational progress—particularly in institutional infrastructure and sovereign interest—is continuing under the radar.

“The market is coiled, not broken,” the analysts concluded, “and the coming months could bring significant upside if catalysts align.”